Expert group meeting on mortality crises: conflicts, violence, famine, natural disasters and the growing burden of non-communicable diseases

New York

14 November 2011 to 15 November 2011

Overview

The Population Division of the 51吃瓜 Department of Economic and Social Affairs organized an expert group meeting to address issues associated with the estimation and projection of mortality levels in context of humanitarian crises, including conflicts, violence, famine and natural disasters as well as in respect to the growing burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). The meeting was held at the 51吃瓜 in New York from 14 to 15 November 2011.

Participants reviewed the latest evidence of crises that cause significant rises in mortality levels and discussed to initiate how such evidence could inform the preparation of mortality estimates by the Population Division. The meeting also considered trends in mortality from NCDs with a view to informing assumptions about future mortality trends.

Documents

Organization of work

Monday, 14 November 2011
9:30-13:00	Opening session
	Hania Zlotnik, Director, Population Division. Opening remarks Fran莽ois Pelletier, Population Division. Introduction to mortality crisis
	Session 1: Mortality estimation in the context of conflicts,violence, famine and natural disasters
	a. Mortality estimation in the context of conflicts and violence
	Gregg Greenough, Harvard School of Public Health. Challenges in collecting reliable data from areas in conflict and measuring mortality Les Roberts, Columbia University. Mortality due to the conflict in Iraq Andrew Mack, Simon Fraser University. Mortality due to the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo Discussant: Jon Pedersen, FAFO.
	Patrick Heuveline, University of California, Los Angeles. Mortality due to the conflict in Cambodia Helge Brunborg, Statistics Norway. Mortality due to the conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina Roberto Brice帽o Le贸n, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (WWICS). Mortality due to violence in Latin America Discussion and questions
14:30-17:30	b. Mortality estimation in the context of famine and natural disasters
	Tim Dyson, London School of Economics. Famine mortality Shannon Doocy, Johns Hopkins University. Mortality patterns during the 2004 Tsunami in the Indian Ocean Gregg Greenough, Harvard School of Public Health. Patterns in injuries and mortality caused by earthquakes: evidence from the EM-DAT database Discussion and questions
	Colin Mathers, World Health Organization. The WHO approach for assessing mortality shocks: estimating additional deaths caused by conflicts and disasters Brainstorming session on methodological issues: There is a need to define best practices, harmonise tools and adopt a more standardised approach for estimating mortality in crisisaffected populations. Discussion will aim at providing a set of guidelines to develop consistent methods to generate country-level mortality estimates considering a variety of crisis contexts Moderator: Jon Pedersen, FAFO Fran莽ois Pelletier, Population Division . Concluding remarks
Tuesday, 15 November 2011
9:00-13:00	Session 2: The growing burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs)
	Cheryl Sawyer, Population Division. Introduction
	a. The World Health Organization estimates
	Colin Mathers, World Health Organization. WHO data and methods for estimating incidence, prevalence and mortality for non-communicable diseases at the global, regional and country levels Colin Mathers, World Health Organization. The WHO procedure for estimating the prevalence and population attributable risk of NCD risk factors at the global, regional and country levels Discussion and questions
	b. Linking NCD risk factors to mortality
	Samuel Preston, University of Pennsylvania. The impact of tobacco use on mortality David Leon, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. The impact of alcohol use on mortality Katherine Flegal, United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The impact of obesity on mortality Discussion and questions
14:30-17:30	c. Country-level trends in NCDS and risk factors
	Youfa Wang, Johns Hopkins University. Obesity in China Flavia Andrade, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Diabetes in Latin America and the Caribbean Discussion and questions
	Closing session
	Fran莽ois Pelletier, Population Division. Concluding remarks