51³Ô¹Ï

I. Opening session

•  Hania Zlotnik, Director, 51³Ô¹Ï Population Division. Projecting fertility: A history (presentation)

II. Low fertility countries in Europe, Northern America, Australia and New Zealand

• Tomáš Sobotka, Czech Republic, Vienna Institute of Demography. European fertility trends and prospects (presentation)
• Gerda Neyer, Austria, Stockholm University. Effects of family policies on childbearing behaviour in developed countries (presentation)
• Hans-Peter Kohler, Germany, University of Pennsylvania. Why has fertility recently increased in many developed countries? (presentation)

III. Low fertility countries in Asia

• Gavin Jones, Australia, National University of Singapore. Recent fertility trends, policy responses and fertility prospects in low fertility countries of East and Southeast Asia (presentation)
• Gu Baochang, China, Renmin University of China. Fertility prospects in China (presentation)
• Ryuichi Kaneko, Japan, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. Fertility prospects in Japan (presentation)
• Sergio DellaPergola, Israel, Hebrew University Jerusalem. Fertility prospects in Israel: Ever below replacement level? (presentation)

IV. Arab countries –diversity in fertility levels

• Laila El-Zeini, Egypt, Cairo University. Fertility transition in Egypt and Morocco: Explaining the differences (presentation)
• John Casterline (USA), Ohio State University. Fertility levels and trends in Arab countries: Why so diverse and what are the prospects (presentation)

V. Latin American fertility levels

• Suzana Cavenaghi, Brazil, ENCE/IBGE. Diversity of childbearing behaviour within population in the context of below replacement fertility in Brazil (presentation)
• Guiomar Bay, UN/ECLAC. Latin American fertility decline: Differences and commonalities
• Luis Rosero-Bixby, Costa Rica, University of Costa Rica. Is Latin America starting to retreat from early and universal childbearing? (presentation)

VI. Asian countries with intermediate fertility levels

• Carl Haub, USA, Population Reference Bureau. Fertility prospects in India (presentation)
• Zeba A. Sathar, Pakistan, Population Council. Fertility prospects in Pakistan (presentation)
• Terry Hull, Australia, Australian National University. Fertility prospects in South-Eastern Asia (presentation)

VII. Prospects of fertility decline in Sub-Saharan Africa

• Tom Moultrie, South Africa, University of Cape Town. Stopping, spacing and postponing: The future of the African fertility decline (presentation)
• Jean-Pierre Guengant, France. Proximate determinants of fertility in Africa and their use in fertility projections (presentation)

VIII. Projecting fertility

• 51³Ô¹Ï Population Division. The evolution of 51³Ô¹Ï Population Division’s approach to projecting fertility

     Presentation of new methodology:

• Adrian Raftery, Ireland, University of Washington. : Overview of a Bayesian approach to projections
• Leontine Alkema, Netherlands, National University of Singapore. Methodology for Bayesian projection of fertility (presentation)

     Preliminary assessment of new methodology:

• 51³Ô¹Ï Population Division. Implications for total fertility and population projections

IX. Panel discussion on projecting fertility

• Peter Johnson, USA, United States Census Bureau
• Joel Cohen, USA, Rockefeller University
• Nico Keilman, Norway, University of Oslo
• Timothy Dyson, United Kingdom, London School of Economics and Political Science
• Peter Way, USA, United States Census Bureau
• John Bongaarts, Netherlands, Population Council

X. Closing