Population Division - Estimates

Expert group meeting on the evaluation of adolescent fertility data and estimates

BOUEDRAO — Mon, 26 Oct 2020 17:43:00 +0000

Monday, 26 October 2020 - 10:00am to Tuesday, 27 October 2020 - 6:00pm

Overview

The purpose of the meeting is to assess the coverage and accuracy and consistency of the data and estimates related to early adolescent fertility and to review the scope of associated demographic factors to assess the accuracy of early adolescent fertility data and estimates. The invited experts from 51�Թ� system entities, research institutions and data producers will also review and discuss approaches for early adolescent fertility data validation, estimation and selection for SDG reporting and analysis. This online meeting of two half-day sessions on 26-27 October 2020 is organized as panel discussions around selected themes addressing data sources, methods to estimate early adolescent fertility data and approaches for data validation and selection for SDG reporting and analysis.

Documents

Organization of work

Monday, 26 October 2020
9:00 - 09:30	Session I: Opening of the meeting & welcome John Wilmoth, Director, Population Division, DESA
09:30 - 11:00	Session II: Setting the stage: Reporting on ABR in the context of the SDGs   Moderator – Nicole Mun Sim Lai, Population Division   Karoline Schmid, Population Division, DESA – Overview of levels and trends of early childbearing Patrick Gerland, Population Division, DESA – World Population Prospects and 1950-2020 estimates for age-specific fertility patterns: past experience and future plans Stephen Kisambira, Population Division, DESA – Reporting on adolescent birth rate data for SDG indicator 3.7.2: data, methods, trends and estimation issues Q&A
11:15 - 1:15	Session III: Data and estimates from various data sources on adolescent fertility (ages girls/women 10-14 and 15-19) Moderator – Stephen Kisambira, Population Division, DESA Bruno Schoumaker, Universite Catholique de Louvain – Estimating Trends in under-15 fertility in developing countries with demographic surveys (WFS, DHS, MICS, RHS, PAPFAM) Adriana Skenderi, Statistics Division, DESA - 51�Թ� Demographic Yearbook data on adolescent fertility Clementine Rossier, University of Geneva – Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) - Adolescent fertility is lower than expected in rural areas: results from 10 African HDSS Sarah Neal, University of Southampton – How reliable are reports of early adolescent pregnancy in Demographic and Health Surveys?
Tuesday, 27 October 2020
09:00 - 9:15	Recap of day 1 and outlook for day 2 Karoline Schmid, Population DivisionPopulation Division, DESA
9:15 - 10:45	Session IV: Adolescent Fertility: Regional and national perspectives Moderator – Yumiko Kamiya, Population Division, DESA Jorge Rodriguez, CELADE/ECLAC - Adolescent fertility in Latin America and the Caribbean: sources, indicators, trends and patterns Neneh Conteh Khali, NSO Sierra Leone – A glimpse of early adolescent fertility in Sierra Leone, Presentation notes Francis Fonanyeneh Wreh, NSO Liberia – The situation of adolescent fertility (15-19 years) in Liberia Mohammad Bellal Hossain, University of Dhaka, Bangladesh – Early adolescent fertility in Bangladesh: Trends and differentials Q&A
11:00 - 12:30	Session V: Open discussion and recommendations for validation, selection and reporting of adolescent fertility Moderator – Francois Pelletier, Population Division, DESA
12:30 - 12:45	Session VI: Closing

Technical paper on data and methods for the production of population estimates

MSTOCKTO — Thu, 10 Sep 2020 19:38:00 +0000

Data and methods for the production of national population estimates: An overview and analysis of available metadata

In its technical paper series, the Population Division publishes substantive and methodological research on population issues carried out by experts both within and outside the 51�Թ� system. The series promotes scientific understanding of population issues among Governments, national and international organizations, research institutions and individuals engaged in social and economic planning, research and training.

Population estimates can be produced using a variety of data sources and methods. This paper offers a concise review of the methods that are commonly used by national statistical offices to produce annual time series of population estimates by age and sex. These methods depend on two critical components: an initial population count and a method of time adjustment. Both components play a crucial role in determining the overall quality of population estimates. The paper formulates specific recommendations concerning best practices for the production of national population estimates. Drawing on information from various sources used by the Population Division of the 51�Թ� Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) to produce its biennial edition of global population estimates, the World Population Prospects, the paper also provides an overview of data availability and current practices in the production of official population estimates around the world.

Full paper

Front Page Article:

Coordination meeting on the estimation of adult mortality

MSTOCKTO — Thu, 02 May 2019 19:43:00 +0000

Thursday, 31 July 2008 - 10:00am

Overview

The Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) of the 51�Թ� Secretariat has the task of estimating levels and trends of mortality for all the countries of the world. The work of the Population Division in this area has encompassed both the preparation of estimates of mortality indicators and the development of methods to estimate mortality, particularly when the data available are incomplete or deficient. As mortality levels decrease, deaths become increasingly concentrated at older ages as is the case in a majority of developing countries today. Given that the quality of data on mortality has not improved as much as mortality levels in those countries, it is pressing to develop and test appropriate methods to estimate mortality in adult ages. In addition, in high-mortality countries, many of which are significantly affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic, accounting for the effect of the epidemic on adult mortality is essential. For those reasons, the Population Division of DESA has been working on the evaluation and improvement of methodology for the estimation of adult mortality.

As part of this ongoing effort, the Population Division of DESA organizes on a regular basis coordination meetings to discuss matters related to the estimation of adult mortality. The second 51�Թ� Coordination Meeting on the Estimation of Adult Mortality took place at 51�Թ� Headquarters in New York on 31 July 2008. The meeting included representatives of key institutions active in the study of mortality, including agencies, funds and programmes of the 51�Թ� system, offices of the 51�Թ� and the regional commissions as well as national statistical offices, universities and research organizations. The meeting reviewed progress made in methods to model and estimate adult mortality in countries with deficient data and identified future directions for research and collaboration. The meeting also provided an opportunity to discuss ongoing activities in the different institutions.

Documents

Organization of work

Thursday, 31 July 2008

9:30-12:30

Morning session

Hania Zlotnik, Population Division. Opening of the meeting
François Pelletier, Population Division. Overview

I. Brief summary of mortality estimation activities

Participants from CELADE, WHO, the US Census Bureau and UNPD are asked to provide a brief overview of work and a statement of priorities in the area of mortality estimation from the perspective of their home institutions.

II. New components in death distribution methods

Kirill Andreev, Population Division. Extending the General Growth Balance method to account for migration:
Ken Hill, Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies. The impact of migration on death distribution methods: Can we adjust?
Discussion and questions

III. Sibling histories and adult mortality levels

Bruno Masquelier, Chercheur (Aspirant FNRS) Institut de démographie (UCL). Analysis of adult mortality based on data on adult siblings: A biographic multilevel approach.
Discussion and questions

14:00-17:00

Afternoon session

IV. Model life table systems

John Wilmoth, Population Division. A flexible two-dimensional mortality model for use in indirect estimation: Motivation and derivation.
Sarah Zureick, WHO. A flexible two-dimensional mortality model for use in indirect estimation: Performance tests and comparisons.

Discussion and questions

V. Old age mortality

Cheryl Sawyer, Population Division. Mortality among the elderly in developing countries: Issues for consideration.
Discussion and questions

VI. Alternative methods for estimating background and senescent mortality

John Bongaarts, Population Council. Trends in senescent life expectancy.
Discussion and questions

VII. An epidemiological perspective to adult mortality

Carlos Castillo-Salgado, Adjunct Associate Professor Bloomberg School of Public Health. The epidemiology of adult mortality in the XXI Century: A challenge for public health.
Discussion and questions