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For further information on this meeting, or to send comments on this report, please contact the Financing for Development (FfD) Office of the 51³Ō¹Ļ Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) [at  HYPERLINK "mailto:s.griffith-jones@ids.ac.uk" s.griffith-jones@ids.ac.uk or  HYPERLINK "mailto:Sharmak@un.org" Sharmak@un.org] or the Office of Development Studies of the 51³Ō¹Ļ Development Programme (UNDP) [at  HYPERLINK "mailto:ODS@undp.org" ODS@undp.org]. The live broadcast of this meeting is available at  HYPERLINK "http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.asp?eventid=577" http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.asp?eventid=577 Contents  TOC \o "1-3" \h \z \u  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc134206870" I. Setting the Stage  PAGEREF _Toc134206870 \h 4  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc134206871" II. Issues, Principles and Best Practices  PAGEREF _Toc134206871 \h 9  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc134206872" III. Summary and Next Steps  PAGEREF _Toc134206872 \h 12  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc134206873" Annex 1: Agenda of the meeting  PAGEREF _Toc134206873 \h 14  HYPERLINK \l "_Toc134206874" Annex 2: List of Participants  PAGEREF _Toc134206874 \h 15  Introduction In recent years, there has been growing academic and political interest in GDP-indexed bonds. In its basic form, this instrument works through a stipulation in the bond contract that payments (of principal, interest, or both) would be tied to the borrower’s ability to pay, by indexing the borrowing country’s debt payments to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). The literature suggests that there are a number of expected benefits for various actors from using this financing tool, including stabilizing public spending and the debt-to-GDP ratio over time and providing “fiscal space” for countercyclical policy during downturns for governments; providing diversification benefits for investors; and generating positive externalities internationally by diminishing the likelihood of debt crises, contagion and the need for costly international debt restructurings. Growing interest in this financing tool and in its potential benefits had spurred a brainstorming meeting on 25 October 2005. As a result of this meeting, it was decided to explore concrete steps forward, based on the shared opinion that GDP-indexed bonds were “an idea whose time has come”. The main purpose of this meeting organized in the IMF premises in Washington DC on 21 April 2006 was to bring experts and decision-makers together to discuss the benefits and possible concerns relating to this instrument. A further key objective of this meeting was to produce a possible checklist of the issues associated with the type of contract and other legal matters that would need to be considered before launching these innovations. The meeting was jointly organized by the Financing for Development Office of the 51³Ō¹Ļ Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) by Professor Stephany Griffith-Jones and Krishnan Sharma, in collaboration with the Office of Development Studies of the 51³Ō¹Ļ Development Programme (UNDP), and the G24 Secretariat, as well as Professor John Williamson . Participants included ministers of finance and senior government officials from both developing and developed countries, senior officials from multilateral organizations, senior representatives from the private sector and reputed academic experts. The meeting followed a morning World Bank session on “LAC meets market” where a number of senior participants endorsed the idea of GDP-linked bonds. Following the discussion during the meeting, this report proceeds in three parts. Part 1 sets the stage and notes down the key points raised by various speakers during the first part of the meeting. Part 2 elaborates on the discussion of possible issues, principles and best practices in the use of GDP-indexed bonds. Part 3 provides a summary of the discussion and charts possible next steps. The meeting agenda and list of participants are provided in the annex to this report. Setting the Stage The speakers in this session were Prof. Stephany Griffith-Jones, Senior Consultant, UN DESA and Fellow at the Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex; Mr. Trevor Manuel, Minister of Finance, South Africa; Dr. Jose Antonio Ocampo, Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, 51³Ō¹Ļ; Prof. Robert Shiller, Yale University; and Dr. Andrés Velasco, Minister of Finance, Chile. Dr. Ocampo provided the opening remarks for the meeting, and Prof. Griffith-Jones began the discussion by describing the key potential benefits from more widespread issuance of GDP-indexed bonds by all countries. The key benefits from these instruments include: a) stabilizing the debt-to-GDP ratio and mitigating procyclicality during good and bad times; b) reducing the likelihood of defaults and debt crises for individual countries; c) providing investors a new investment instrument and helping them diversify their investments across countries (GDP-indexed bonds allow investors to take a position on growth in a variety of countries, and could ultimately enable investors to take a position on the growth of the GDP of the world once these bonds become widely available, as Prof. Shiller has pointed out) ; and d) generating externality-type benefits throughout the broader financial system by reducing the likelihood of disruptive financial crises in the global capital markets. Externalities mean that GDP-indexed bonds would be beneficial for a wider range of countries other than just those issuing the bonds, as the risk of contagion is diminished, and for a broader array of investors too as there is a lower risk of default. For multilaterals and the IMF, it also reduces the need to finance bail-out packages. This justifies public action to help initially develop this instrument. Prof. Griffith-Jones added in that regard that the IFIs could play an important role, particularly in helping to jump-start the market by providing loans that are linked to GDP, and then by securitizing this debt and offering it to the markets. Prof. Griffith-Jones also stressed that it would be valuable if developed countries and/or very creditworthy developing countries like Mexico or Chile were able to set a precedent by issuing this instrument first. Prof. Griffith-Jones also noted that now is an ideal time to launch these types of instruments, particularly because of the high level of interest by the markets in the GDP-linked warrants of Argentina. She also emphasized that there is large investor appetite for emerging market risk, liquidity is plentiful in financial markets, and many countries have improved their fundamentals. Furthermore, financial markets have become very innovative in creating instruments like derivatives that offer antecedents for GDP-linked bonds. Overall, it appears that concerns regarding the issuance of this instrument are not very persuasive: for example the idea that GDP would be deliberately under-estimated by a government just to service less debt is not realistic, as it is politically preferable to reflect good growth figures. Furthermore, premiums on these bonds should be very low and possibly even negative as the likelihood of default is much lower. Mr. Trevor Manuel raised a number of key points for further thinking and discussion. Among them are the following. First, he pointed out that for most developing countries, including notably those in Africa, the main challenge that remains in using these tools is the paucity of reliable and accurate statistics. Revisions of estimates of GDP growth rates are quite substantial, often as large a 0.5 percentage points. Lags in reporting and revisions in the measurement of GDP will thus need to be considered, and the main concern here is how to ensure that countries will end-up paying higher debt service exactly during the period of good times. In addition, he noted that the countries with the greatest need for such types of bonds are likely to be those that would face the least demand from the markets. Mr. Manuel also pointed out that increasing debt payments from GDP-indexed bonds may not be feasible even during periods of high growth, particularly when the debt servicing costs are already high. Increased liquidity is another issue that would need to be deliberated further, since a high liquidity premium might be charged by the markets. Finally, he also noted that the forecast horizons for macroeconomic variables such as GDP are fairly short, which would then raise the question of how present global macroeconomic imbalances would affect these forecasts. Mr. Manuel also drew from his own experience in South Africa, and noted that the case would need to be made that GDP-indexed bonds could offer more benefits than the debt instruments that South Africa now makes use of. Due to good growth and revenue performance, and successful reforms and macroeconomic management, South Africa’s recent external debt issuance was priced at a mere 62 basis points over LIBOR. Prof. Shiller thanked the organizers for bringing together the key experts on the issue. He emphasized that the idea of GDP-indexed bonds makes fundamental theoretical sense in the context of risk-sharing that would ultimately be most efficiently spread across the world. He noted, for example, that Sweden’s recent move to tie retirees’ social security payments to nominal GDP growth is a similar application of the concept of risk-sharing underlying GDP-indexed bonds, and a sign that this concept is spreading. Prof. Shiller also wanted to emphasize several factors that lead him to maintain a positive outlook on the broader adoption of GDP-indexed bonds. First, he noted that there have been significant advances in financial theory, which has supported the development of such instruments. He noted that, in addition, this is being supported by a better understanding of human psychology and behavioral finance. Finally, Prof. Shiller explained how improvements in information technology would help make the 21st century fundamentally different from the past, and that this technology would contribute significantly towards the usage of more innovative financing tools. In particular, the availability and quality of statistics is improving vastly, and this in turn creates opportunities for market innovation. Prof. Shiller mentioned that options and futures indexed to real estate prices in US markets will, for the first time, be offered by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Initial obstacles of pricing these important risk management tools were overcome by developing adequate and trusted indexes. Prof. Shiller also noted that the main risks faced by investors are usually long term risks, which evolve slowly through time. This is particularly the case for GDP risk and therefore thinking about long term contracts such as GDP-indexed bonds is important. In this perspective, Prof. Shiller noted that the history of innovative financing tools seems to be a promising one. He described the experience of inflation-indexed bonds as an example – these types of bonds faced resistance from the market in the beginning but now constitute about 7% of US debt and a quarter of UK debt. Thus, there is the precedence of new instruments being eventually accepted by the markets and the demand for them growing significantly. Prof. Shiller also argued that the uncertainty relating to the future stream of payments should not represent an obstacle to pricing the instrument, since stock markets are able to routinely price companies based on projections of future earnings. Markets could perform a similar function in pricing GDP-indexed bonds. In addition, Prof. Shiller discussed his own research which revealed that there is a great deal of idiosyncratic country risk that could be diversified using tools such as GDP-indexed bonds, and that there might only be a very small risk premium for using these types of instruments if there is a well-diversified portfolio of issuers. He also argued that India may in fact exhibit a negative risk premium, given that its GDP is negatively correlated with world GDP. Mr. Ocampo discussed the role of international financial institutions to implement countercyclical policies using risk mitigating instruments, such as GDP-indexed bonds. Today, emerging markets and developing countries in general face a number of procyclical pressures, as visible through spreads that increase at times of crisis and decrease at times of euphoria. We are currently living such a period of euphoria, with some similarities to 1997 before the Asian financial crisis, except that there are now more financial instruments and more risky ones. Mr. Ocampo thus questioned how best to enhance international financial cooperation to foster countercyclical policies. Such policies could also help enhance the solvency of these countries. Certainly, commodity-indexed bonds have existed for some time, but if IFIs wish to go further they might for instance create a global stabilization fund based on countercyclical rules. Multilateral development banks (MDBs) could play a key role in several ways in developing risk mitigating instruments. One would be to offer GDP-indexed lending, in order to provide borrowing countries more space to conduct countercyclical policies particularly in the event of downturns. MDBs could also encourage the use of GDP-indexed bonds by acting, perhaps initially, as market makers for risk mitigating instruments such as GDP-indexed bonds, which could provide additional liquidity. Mr. Ocampo also noted that risk-mitigating instruments such as GDP-indexed bonds could form part of a broader array of innovations that MDBs may need to consider. MDBs need to innovate, evolve from risk-free approaches if necessary, and define their role in risk management, crucial in a world of greater financial volatility. Dr. Velasco emphasized that it is surprising that we have not been thinking about and applying risk sharing such as through GDP-indexed bonds before; the basic principles are very simple. He noted that it is hard to conceive of a world without basic insurance products—home, fire, and unemployment insurance among them—which seem so obvious and natural at the household or individual levels, yet are surprisingly absent at the country level. Because such insurance and risk-management instruments are absent at the country level, Dr. Velasco noted, many macroeconomic outcomes in emerging market countries are much worse than they need have been. He also discussed how issues of solvency and insurance are very much linked. Countries without insurance against some types of shocks are also more likely to be unable to face debt- and repayment-related problems, so it is their lack of access to insurance mechanisms that also contributes to the episodes of insolvency that these countries sometimes face. Dr. Velasco observed that if more insurance mechanisms were available to developing countries, then perhaps finance ministers may not need to be too conservative in their policies. As to the price of GDP-indexed bonds, Dr. Velasco suggested that these instruments might not necessarily be more expensive than plain vanilla bonds because part of the upside for the investors is the likely reduction in the probability of a debt default. As a result, effective payments may be higher with GDP-linked bonds than with plain vanilla ones. Dr. Velasco noted that pricing GDP-indexed bonds should be easier than pricing equities as the market usually does, as there are better forecasts for GDP growth than for earnings of individual companies. He thus noted that probably the only main obstacle is that they (GDP-indexed bonds) are not in existence yet. Investors may not know they need these instruments until they are available. Dr. Velasco observed that what is probably needed is a “big bang”; and that rather than wait for the event of a worldwide debt crisis and debt restructuring, it would be better to explore collective action to create markets for GDP-indexed bonds. Ideal market-makers could be the MDBs. After the interventions of the main speakers, the floor was opened to broader discussion, and a number of key points were raised: Mr. Eduardo Aninat noted that another issue that would need to be considered is the potential role of forecasters. He observed that many forecasts in developing countries are still “off the mark”. Mr. Aninat also noted that developing countries have different levels of institutional development. Strong institutions are ultimately needed in order to develop more robust financial markets. He noted that markets (i.e. the potential demanders for GDP-indexed bonds) might differentiate between those with strong and those with weak capital markets, and prefer to lend to the former In response to his first comment, speakers reiterated that it is certainly not more difficult to forecast GDP than the profits of individual firms – in the very same developing countries. Mr. Daniel Schydlowsky said that pricing, while an issue in the beginning, could be resolved over time. He also noted that the issue of liquidity is akin to a “chicken and the egg” situation—greater liquidity would suggest a more conducive scenario for both countries and markets to use (i.e. issue and/or buy) GDP-indexed bonds, but in the absence of a few countries issuing first, lack of liquidity would continue to be a problem. Mr. Schlydlowsky then echoed the suggestion by Mr. Ocampo that the MDBs could play a key role in facilitating the creation of a liquid market in GDP-indexed bonds. He also suggested that it might be easier to price an instrument where the payment of the principal, rather than the coupons, is made contingent on GDP. Finally he suggested that lags in GDP statistics and their impact on debt servicing could be overcome by government provisions on their accounts. Mr. Eduardo Fernandez Arias (IADB) noted that it might be useful to offer a combination of instruments to cater to different target markets. He noted that indexing to real GDP growth might prove most useful for bonds targeted at international investors; while inflation-indexed bonds might be more desirable for investors in the domestic market. Furthermore, Mr. Manuel noted that GDP-indexed bonds will need to be considered amongst other alternatives, including a possible revival of the contingency credit line (CCL). Prof. Griffith-Jones added to this point, suggesting that GDP-indexed bonds should probably be seen as one in a broad battery of instruments that could be used in combination to achieve better risk management across different countries. Mr. Charles Blitzer (IMF) suggested that a cost-benefit analysis be made by individual countries to assess the potential attractiveness of GDP-indexed bonds as a risk management tool. Dr. Velasco responded to this suggestion noting that the pricing logic for GDP-indexed bonds should not be based on “individual rationality” by single countries, but a “collective rationality”. The price of GDP-indexed bonds will depend on who else is issuing and how much is being issued. Dr. Velasco thus suggested that collective action would be required, and that it would be ideal to further deliberate the idea from a collective rationality point of view in institutions like the IMF. Dr. Velasco noted further that the difference between risk sharing and self-insurance is important. He noted that self-insurance approaches are second or third best. Risk-sharing offers a more cost-efficient way of managing risks, and allows countries to package risks and off-load them to investors who would want to take-on those types of risks. Dr. Velasco explained that self-insurance in some developing countries right now is a costly strategy. He quoted very recent research at Harvard that revealed how self-insurance through increased reserve holding implies considerable costs for developing countries. Dr. Velasco noted that GDP-indexed bonds could thus offer countries a cheaper way to insure against financial volatility. Several representatives from the private sector made additional comments on the potential of GDP-indexed bonds. It was first noted that the US bond market could offer some lessons as it would be an example of a liquid market that tracks, relatively well, GDP performance – given that US monetary policy follows to a large extent Taylor rules. This is not now the case for developing economies, where interest rates tend to go up, instead of down, in bad times. In addition, it was suggested that some lessons could be drawn from the experience so far with debt warrants. It was noted, for example, that investors initially showed no interest in GDP-linked warrants; but that today, due in particular to Argentina’s economic recovery and the experience with their debt warrants, investors are becoming very interested in these new investment instruments. Finally, it was also noted that pricing methodologies of GDP-linked instruments have already been developed by the private sector, much along the lines of recent research by the IMF on this issue. Finally, the high cost of self-insurance for countries was stressed, which needs to be compared with costs of instruments that reduce the need for such self-insurance. Issues, Principles and Best Practices This session was moderated by Mr. John Williamson, Senior Fellow at the Institute for International Economics. The panel included Mr. Eduardo Borensztein (Inter American Development Bank), Mr. Lee Buchheit (Partner, Cleary, Gottlieb, Steen and Hamilton), Ms. Christina Leijonhufvud (J.P. Morgan Chase) and Carl Adams (Capital Framework Advisors, LLC). This second part of the meeting was devoted to a more in-depth discussion on the concrete issues left to resolve. Mr. Williamson mentioned as some of the key elements to consider the three issues of the design of a possible contract, the various concerns over GDP statistics, and the possible time lags between GDP variations and payments on the bonds. Mr. Eduardo Borensztein stressed the importance of issuing GDP linked bonds in good times and focused on Gross Domestic Product data and legal issues of the contracts. While reliable GDP statistics are essential for this instrument, recent experiences illustrate the shortfalls in some countries that issued similar growth-indexed bonds, including Bosnia, Bulgaria, Costa Rica and Argentina. Drawing upon these cases, it seems important to identify in the contracts who should be responsible for GDP data, and under which form. This might possibly require some cooperation by the multilateral organizations, although it is unlikely that they will be encouraged to do so, and to some extent even unnecessary as there are rather standard ways to calculate GDP. Second, Mr. Eduardo Borensztein discussed the issue of revisions in GDP through time. It often happens that after initial publication of GDP data for the year, some revisions are made later. It is possible in this view that, for instance, it could be decided that only the initially published data would be used. However, what happens if GDP data is not available on a due date remains to be clarified. Such issues therefore require clarifications in the documentation of the instruments. As regards concerns about possible revisions due to methodology changes in GDP calculation, this should be easily overcome because a widely available economic expertise renders recalculation of GDP using the original methodology quite easy –such recalculations can be done over the whole life of the bond. Mr. Eduardo Borensztein then made some comments on a few of the legal aspects of these bonds. Considering that the instrument specifying the payments linked to GDP should clearly be detachable to facilitate the pricing, he noted also that there might be a potential political risk around the issuance of GDP-indexed bonds. New governments might refuse indeed to abide by the rules stated in the contract that were agreed by the former ruling party, which would affect the detachable part. Thus some particular clauses (like pari passu) may need to be inserted into the contracts for these instruments, which could prove to be important during times of restructuring. Clarification on this could reduce risk premia on these bonds. Mr. Lee Buchheit outlined what he thought could happen to GDP-indexed bonds in the context of a sovereign debt restructuring. Starting with historical aspects, he noted that those bonds have been regarded as one “species” amongst many other instruments in the broad “genus” of value recovery rights that included those used in the early Brady deals and oil warrants. Mr. Buchheit observed that they were never very popular with sovereign debtors, for several reasons. First, precisely because these instruments were used in the context of a restructuring, they would often be priced so far “out of the money” which meant, essentially, that they had little value during the restructuring and offered little incentive for the country to use them (i.e. they did not imply deeper debt relief from the creditors because they were under-priced). In addition, the political economy aspect worked in its disfavor because these instruments required the sovereign to pay more at times of recovery which is likely to be politically unpopular – this is linked to the political risk element mentioned by Mr. Boerensztein. Finally, a strong counterargument has been developed by countries (and first used by the Philippines) that resisted value recovery instruments: bonds issued at a restructuring will initially trade at a discount to their face value, and if in the future GDP grows, the price of these bonds will also rise which is the return the investors were waiting for. This remains a compelling argument –as long as these bonds are not callable- as these bonds can trade at prices that reflect the economic situation and credit-worthiness of the country. Mr. Buchheit then raised a number of issues and questions for further discussion. He began by describing the function of these instruments as being similar to that of a “crumple-zone” in an automobile (i.e. the design feature that serves as a cushion to absorb shocks in major collisions). Mr. Buchheit said that while useful, these instruments could not save the country against all types of shocks. He then noted that should a country get into deep trouble, then even a country’s GDP-indexed bonds (even if these constitute a major portion of total debt) might not save it from a crisis. And in the event of a debt restructuring, a number of questions would need to be raised on the treatment of these instruments. How would this “crumple-zone” feature of the instrument be treated? Will it be exempted from the restructuring because of the crumple-zone feature? How are GDP-indexed bonds to be treated vis-ą-vis the rest of the country’s bonds? Are they fungible? Mr. Buchheit noted that these types of questions will need to be settled eventually. Ms. Christina Leijonhufvud provided a market perspective and argued that the Argentinean issue and the high price demanded by the markets may not be applicable for other countries, due to the special circumstances faced by Argentina. She also stressed that the market requires some time to find the right pricing for instruments with embedded correlations, which in turn calls for some political willingness to bear the implied initial pricing difficulties, due to inefficiencies Ms. Christina Leijonhufvud then described derivatives markets where there exists a distinction between “wrong way” transactions, that is, trades that imply payments on a transaction which are negatively correlated with creditworthiness. Opposite to that, the GDP-indexed bonds look more like a “right way” trade from a derivatives perspective. On the issuer side this is true as well, as mentioned earlier by Mr. Andrés Velasco regarding the distinction between self-insurance and risk-sharing. In that regard, while other forms of self-insurance may be available at lower upfront costs to issuers, they may be less efficient in freeing resources in case of severe stress: relying more on local currency debt markets for instance do not offer this “right way” approach, in the event of severe stress. Finally, she emphasized that market appetite will follow political willingness to issue these bonds. Mr. Carl Adams discussed the work of the task force established in the wake of the brainstorming meeting and focusing on the drafting of a concept note on a sample contract the task force had originally aimed to deliver a sample contract, but initially focused on addressing a list of important and complex legal issues at stake. It was believed indeed that the markets would ultimately produce the contracts for these new bonds but that a checklist could provide inputs for a sample contract. This list should be used not only by issuers to work with their investment bankers when contemplating this GDP-indexed bond. It should also be a useful tool for the Ministers of Finance in developing countries when they are considering this instrument both to meet their financing needs and to improve risk management. Mr. Carl Adams pointed out that there are in fact many new capital market needs and opportunities that should be explored and researched for risk management purposes, including instruments that mix debt and equity. It is also important to take into account recent changes in the base and composition of issuers, investors and other financial intermediaries. In particular, a wide variety of financial boutiques have sprung up that can make better use of instruments such as GDP-indexed bonds. Moreover, Mr. Adams stressed that instruments like GDP-linked bonds can also further the development of capital markets at the national, regional and global levels. More research is required on all these issues. After the interventions of the main speakers, the floor was opened to broader discussion and three key points were raised: Seniority and cross-default clauses: the GDP-indexed bond would possess most features of a warrant. However, a detachable warrant implies that the bond might not have the same seniority as other bonds, as noted by a participant from Argentina. In that regard, Mr. Lee Buchheit answered by discussing the issue of cross-default clauses, drawing on the case of certain existing commodity-indexed bonds such as oil warrants in Venezuela. Experience has shown indeed that, while recovery value instruments like those used in the Brady deals were typically detachable, they did not cross-default back to the rest of a country’s indebtedness –as they were not legally money borrowed per se- and leverage was therefore hard to find in the underlying of the contracts. Oil warrants in Venezuela for instance did not have cross-default clauses, which made the markets dissatisfied at times when the sovereign was late in payments. Cross-default clauses and value of the bond: A solution both from the point of view of the issuers and the investors, that would also reduce premiums as noted by Prof. Griffith-Jones, would be precisely to include a cross-default clause. Cross-default would reduce the premium on the bonds due to the detachability of the warrant. How the market would exactly price that would be interesting to know. According to Mr. Lee Buchheit, this clause should be imbedded in the detachable part of the warrant, so as to protect the warrant holder and encourage the sovereign not to cease making payments on the warrant without otherwise incurring costs on its main debt stock. This feature therefore appeared important to the speakers and participants to bring value to the bond. Detachability and symmetry: Some participants evoked the issue of the link between the bond and the detachable warrant and in particular the possibility that the warrant would be preserved in the event of a default on the bond: this might make this instrument less risky. It was answered by Mr. Lee Buchheit that once the warrant is detached from the underlying bond, the idea of a symmetric reduction or enhancement of the coupon makes less sense: while this is possible upwards (Brady style), it is not when the change is downwards. In order to have symmetry both in up and down adjustments, it should thus, again, be embedded to the bond. Mr. Lee Buchheit also noted that as it is a fall in GDP that is at the origin of the default, it makes it very unlikely that the warrant would be paid anyway, at least in the short term. How the restructurers would take these instruments into account remains to be seen. Summary and Next Steps To summarize the key points raised during the meeting and suggest possible follow-up action, Mr. Williamson emphasized a number of important issues and themes that seemed to emerge, over-all, from the discussion. Moving beyond value recovery right type instruments. The discussion emphasized that the experience until now has been with GDP-linked instruments (i.e. warrants) issued within the context of debt restructuring. While this experience has been informative, there is now a need to step further, because the task at hand is to issue a GDP-indexed bond during normal times. It would be important to draw on past experience, but to also consider the creation of GDP-indexed bonds as a distinct task. Thinking in terms of a new asset class. GDP-indexed bonds are neither debt nor equity, though the preceding discussion (notably in the second session) often sought to identify the links across these instruments. However, GDP-indexed bonds are probably going to be a distinct asset class and these will need to be treated as such. Facilitating the timing of issuance. In order for GDP-indexed bonds to work well, the timing issue of payments has to be resolved. The countercyclical benefit is greater if the payments on these instruments coincides more with the movement of GDP. Further empirical research on this topic would be critically informative. Building statistical capacity and facilitating self-discipline. The issue of statistics was perceived as important in the implementation of these bonds. Statistics are weak in a number of developing countries, especially in least developed countries (less so in emerging markets). Nevertheless, these new market instruments will probably call for and encourage self-discipline by issuing countries to improve their statistical systems and, as noted by Krishnan Sharma, markets are used already to dealing with imperfect statistics; Spurring collective action. Individual market actors involved in issuing GDP-indexed bonds will face big launch costs. Without a diversification possibility, the premiums for individual countries would also be very large. Hence, international financial institutions (IFIs) could play a key role and act as a catalyst for country and market action. Among possible tasks would be to try and develop a model contract and facilitate simultaneous issuance. IFIs could play an important role in this regard by persuading a number of countries to issue this type of debt simultaneously and also IFIs could generate the needed research to backstop such an issuance. Regarding the next steps, Mr. John Williamson said research should be conducted on the opportunity of drafting a model contract. According to him, this task might be left for the market to draft or, better, handed to some international financial institutions. Prof. Griffith-Jones believed that the market may not be adequate in that regard, as launch costs of the first instruments are high and markets may be unwilling to pay for it. Thus there appeared to be a strong argument, as called for by Mr. John Williamson, for MDBs and IFIs more generally to take the initiative and for the bond to be perceived as a public policy instrument because in contributes to a reduction in risks. In that regard it may be useful for these institutions also to work on persuading countries to issue the instrument simultaneously. Some countries could be approached in a similar vein, added Mrs. Stephany Griffith Jones who then thanked the participants and the audience for their active role in the meeting. Mr. Buira concluded the meeting, noting that while innovations are often borne during periods of crisis, it is during periods of relative normalcy and stability that more measured and well-thought strategies could be conceived and implemented. He noted that now is such a time, and there is an opportunity to provide a public good in a sense. The creation of instruments such as GDP-indexed bonds, Mr. Buira noted, leads to an expansion of the choices and welfare for both countries and investors. He noted that not all countries could offer debt in their own currency, and thus, GDP-indexed bonds can be very helpful to fill this void. He concluded that GDP-indexed bonds are not an absolute insurance but these instruments could serve as one of several key building blocks. These instruments will be particularly important for developing countries, offering them more space to maintain social spending and enhancing these countries’ ability to manage volatility. Annex 1: Agenda of the meeting GDP-Indexed Bonds: An idea whose time has come (Friday, 21 April 2006) Location: International Monetary Fund Headquarters (IMF Auditorium), Washington DC 3.15 pm to 4pm. Setting the stage (moderator: Stephany Griffith-Jones, Senior Advisor, Financing for Development Office, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 51³Ō¹Ļ). Speakers: Trevor Manuel (Finance Minister, South Africa) Robert Shiller (Stanley B. Resor Professor of Economics, Yale University) Jose Antonio Ocampo (Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, 51³Ō¹Ļ) Andrés Velasco (Minister of Finance of Chile) 4pm to 4.30 pm: Discussion (moderator: Inge Kaul, Senior Advisor, Office of Development Studies, 51³Ō¹Ļ Development Programme) 4.30 pm to 5 pm: Issues, Principles and Best Practices (moderator: John Williamson Senior Fellow, Institute for International Economics): Speakers: Eduardo Borensztein (Inter American Development Bank) Lee C. Buchheit, Partner, Cleary, Gottleib, Steen and Hamilton Lead Commentators: Christina Leijonhufvud (Managing Director, JP Morgan Chase and Co) Carl Adams (Capital Framework Advisors, LLC) 5 pm to 5.30 pm: Discussion (moderator: John Williamson) 5.30 pm to 5:45pm: Summary and Next Steps (moderator: Stephany Griffith-Jones). Speakers: John Williamson Ariel Buira (Director, G24 Secretariat) 5:45 pm: Cocktail Reception Annex 2: List of Participants Carl Adams, Principal, Capital Framework Advisors LLC Eduardo Aninat, Ambassador of Chile to MexicoClaudio Antonini, Credit Derivatives Research, UBS Anders Aslund, Institute of International EconomicsAmar Bhattacharya, Senior Advisor, World Bank Charles Blitzer, Assistant Director, International Monetary FundEduardo Borensztein, Inter-American Development Bank Ariel Buira, Director, G24 Secretariat Lei Buchheit, Partner, Cleary, Gottlieb, Steen & HamiltonLeanna Byerlee , Vice President , Head of Sovereign Rating Advisory and Analysis, JP Morgan Otaviano Canuto, Executive Director, World Bank (Brazil)John B. Chambers, Managing Director ,Chairman, Sovereign Ratings Committee, Standard & Poor's Pedro Conceiēćo, Office of Development Studies, 51³Ō¹Ļ Development Program (UNDP)Tito Cordella, Lead Economist, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, The World Bank Andrew Crockett, Managing Director, Global Investment Bank Management JM Chase Whitney Debevoise, Senior Partner , Arnold and Porter Eduardo DoryanPierre Duquesne, Executive Director International Monetary Fund (France)Kristin Forbes, Associate Professor of International Management, MITAnna Gelpern, Associate Professor of Law, Rutgers University School of LawPablo Goldberg, Merrill Lynch ,co-Head Latin America Economics and Fixed Income Strategy Professor Stephany Griffith-Jones, Senior Consultant, Financing for Development Office, UN DESALeslie Payton Jacobs, EMTAAna Maria Jul, ConsultantInge Kaul, Senior Advisor, 51³Ō¹Ļ Development Program (UNDP)Jan Kregel, Chief, Policy Analysis and Development Branch, Financing for Development Office, UN DESAMark Kruger, Senior Advisor to the Executive Director (Canada)Christina Leijonhufvud, Managing Director, JP Morgan Chase and CoJoaquim V. Levy, Inter-American Development Bank's vice president of finance John Lipsky, Vice Chairman and Chief Economist, JP MorganYan Liu, Lawyer, IMF Legal DepartmentTrevor Manuel, Minister of Finance, South AfricaCarlos Medeiros, International Monetary FundRonald Mendoza, Policy Analyst, Office of Development Studies, UNDPGuillermo Mondino, Head of Emerging Market Research Latin America, Lehman BrothersAlberto Musalem-Borrero, Director, Tudor InvestmentsJose Antonio Ocampo, Under Secretary-General, 51³Ō¹Ļ Department of Economic and Social AffairsJong Nam Oh, Executive Director, International Monetary Fund (Korea)Mr. Lev Palei, Senior Advisor to the Executive Director, International Monetary Fund (Russia)Alexei Remizov, Director, Sovereign and Corporate Origination ,Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein Gerardo Rodķguez Regordosa, Deputy Undersecretary of Public Credit, Mexico Oscar de Rojas, Director, Financing for Development Office, UN DESADavid Rolley Co-Head, Global Fixed Income, Loomis, Sayles Daniel Schydlowsky, President, Corporación Financiera de Desarrollo SA COFIDEStephanie Segal, Advisor to the Director at the International Monetary Fund (United States)Julien Serre, Associate Economic Affairs Officer, Financing for Development Office, UN DESAKrishnan Sharma, Focal Point for Business Engagement, Financing for Development Office, UN DESARobert J. Shiller, Stanley B. Resor Professor of Economics, Yale UniversityDavid Skeel, University of PennsylvaniaShari Spiegel, SIPA, University of ColumbiaAlonso Garcķa Tamés, Undersecretary of Finance and Public Credit , MexicoAlex Trepelkov, Chief, Multi-stakeholder Engagement and Outreach Branch, Financing for Development Office, UN DESAEdwin Truman, Institute of International EconomicsAndrés Velasco Brańes, Ministro de Hacienda, Ministerio de Hacienda de ChileJohn Williamson, Institute of International EconomicsDaniel M. Zelikow, Managing Director JP Morgan  See for instance, Borensztein and Mauro (2004), Council of Economic Advisers (2004), IMF (2004), Schroder and others (2004), Williamson (2005) and the paper prepared for this meeting by Griffith-Jones and Sharma (2005).  See  HYPERLINK "http://www.un.org/esa/ffd/GDP-indexed%20Bonds" http://www.un.org/esa/ffd/GDP-indexed%20Bonds for a report on the brainstorming meeting.  Special thanks are due to Carl Adams and Julien Serre for their invaluable contribution in organizing the meeting. Thanks are also due to Julien Serre and Ron Mendoza for assisting in the writing of this report.  See agenda at  HYPERLINK "http://iris37.worldbank.org/domdoc/PRD/Other/PRDDContainer.nsf/WB_ViewAttachments?ReadForm&ID=85256D2400766CC78525715500549FA0&" http://iris37.worldbank.org/domdoc/PRD/Other/PRDDContainer.nsf/WB_ViewAttachments?ReadForm&ID=85256D2400766CC78525715500549FA0&  For further information on this instrument, the reader may wish to refer to the website of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange at http://www.cme.com/trading/prd/env/housingover16250.html.  See for instance Rodrik, Dani. “The Social Cost of Foreign Exchange Reserves.” (Forthcoming in International Economic Journal).  See for example Miyajima, Ken. 2006. “How to Evaluate GDP-linked Warrants: Price and Repayment Capacity.” IMF Working Paper 06/85. Washington, D.C. [http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.cfm?sk=18977.0].     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