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Most policy analysts, donors and multilaterals agree that scaling-up is desirable and needed. Why? Without aid, progress may be close to impossible due to poverty traps or it may be too slow. Ё<nРnР ЊV.  ; ] a ѓŸЁ(ŸЈ“How much aid? There is no consensus. The methods differ. The UN and BWIs go each their separate ways. =>Should work on a common framework. ЁZ_%$_$%$  $ЊB ;  D ѓŸЁ(Ÿ ЈDespite the consensus in favor of scaling-up there are a number of concerns which affect the size and pace at which aid is made available: short-term concern:  Dutch disease . long-term concern: aid-dependency. Ё>ŒБсŒ$Бс$$Њ<‹ $ " ѓŸЁ(ѓ ŸЁ(Ÿ nBecause: 1. Positive impact on growth will only be visible in the long-run: 20 or 25 years. In the short-term, there may be trade-offs. => need  interim indicators of progress.ЁB Ў $ Ў$ЊЗ ѓ ŸЁ(Ÿ к 2. No agreed upon method to estimate quantitatively the  growth dividend of investing in human development.Ё4n%0090Њm ѓ ŸЁ(ŸЈq3. Concern that returns or the growth dividend may not materialize because of corruption or gross inefficiencies.Ё r(o,Њq ѓ  ŸЁ(ŸЈЅThis leads to: => a more conservative approach in the short-term on the part of donors because they are not persuaded that aid will lead to growth and self-reliance.Ё,—,—,Њ І ѓ  ŸŸ ю=> more uncertainty in aid-flows because without solid evidence it is easier for aid to become a  political football . Ё,ww0,Њw ѓ ŸŸЈ= => a more conservative approach on the part of IMF and WB. Ё>=0Њ= ѓ ŸŸЈ]Leads to self-fulfilling prophecy of lower aid, lower growth, and lower human development.Ё*&8&,8(Њ] ѓ ŸŸ  What is needed on the part of international organizations? 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Most policy analysts, donors and multilaterals agree that scaling-up is desirable and needed. Why? Without aid, progress may be close to impossible due to poverty traps or it may be too slow. Ё<nРnР ЊV.  ; ] a ѓŸЁ(ŸЈ“How much aid? There is no consensus. The methods differ. The UN and BWIs go each their separate ways. =>Should work on a common framework. ЁZ_%$_$%$  $ЊB ;  D ѓŸЁ(Ÿ ЈDespite the consensus in favor of scaling-up there are a number of concerns which affect the size and pace at which aid is made available: short-term concern:  Dutch disease . long-term concern: aid-dependency. Ё>ŒБсŒ$Бс$$Њ<‹ $ " ѓŸЁ(ѓ ŸЁ(Ÿ nBecause: 1. Positive impact on growth will only be visible in the long-run: 20 or 25 years. In the short-term, there may be trade-offs. => need  interim indicators of progress.ЁB Ў $ Ў$ЊЗ ѓ ŸЁ(Ÿ к 2. No agreed upon method to estimate quantitatively the  growth dividend of investing in human development.Ё4n%0090Њm ѓ ŸЁ(ŸЈq3. Concern that returns or the growth dividend may not materialize because of corruption or gross inefficiencies.Ё r(o,Њq ѓ  ŸЁ(ŸЈЅThis leads to: => a more conservative approach in the short-term on the part of donors because they are not persuaded that aid will lead to growth and self-reliance.Ё,—,—,Њ І ѓ  ŸŸ ю=> more uncertainty in aid-flows because without solid evidence it is easier for aid to become a  political football . Ё,ww0,Њw ѓ ŸŸЈ= => a more conservative approach on the part of IMF and WB. Ё>=0Њ= ѓ ŸŸЈ]Leads to self-fulfilling prophecy of lower aid, lower growth, and lower human development.Ё*&8&,8(Њ] ѓ ŸŸ  What is needed on the part of international organizations? Less  rethoric-based and more  knowledge-based discussion and advocacy: Ё*;K;,K,ЊB:   < ѓŸЁ(Ÿ œ=> refine methods to estimate scaling-up requirements; costing methods must incorporate second-round and economy-wide effects as well as complementarities and trade-offs. => develop practical approaches to identify and address the non-financial constraints: for example, behavioral and institutional failures. => formulate ways to estimate the  growth dividend (or  fiduciary payback ) of investing in human development or the MDGs. => construct interim indicators and device evaluation methods to monitor progress in the transition period (i.e., before the growth dividend materializes) Ё,MZZMЊ.Ќ  œ ъюя €0 № №№Њ№( № №№r № S №€шK>Пџ№­ 0@№У  > № ž№H № ƒ №0ƒ“ŽŸ‹”оНhПџ ?№ џџџ€€€Лру33™™™™Ьˆ‘Š‰К___PPT10‹iы.HєЦАт˜А+Dё='ё П џџџџ=ё @Bё +rДOУmѕЎOЮoХ1  !"#$%&'()*+ўџџџ-./01234567ўџџџ9ўџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџўџр…ŸђљOhЋ‘+'Гй0˜ `hмј   D P \hpфlKnowledge-gaps in the Scaling-up Debate Nora Lustig Director of the Poverty Group, UNDP October 20, 2006Dra. Nora LustigDra. Nora Lustig14Microsoft Office PowerPoint@руіз@А5пHєЦ@0 ћЖQєЦ˜G џџџџ; ь  ‡6  yЁќџџџ-њџџџ-$џџџџџџx x џџџџџџњ--'џџћіџ@"Arial-. '2 Closing the Knowledge.ћ М"Systemx7ф-№ћіџ@"Arial-.  2 s-ћ.-№ћіџ@"Arial-. 2 vgap in .-№њ-‘-№ћіџ@"Arial-. 2  the Scaling.-№ћіџ@"Arial-.  2 N-ћ.-№ћіџ@"Arial-. 2 Q up Debate:.-№њ-‚-№ћіџ@"Arial-.  2 '7An .-№ћіџ@"Arial-. 2 'FAgenda.-№њ-(7(h-№ћіџ@"Arial-. 2 ?6 Nora Lustig.-№ћіџ@"Arial-. 62 KDirector of the Poverty Group, .-№ћіџ@"Arial-.  2 VAUNDP.-№ћіџ@"Arial-. 2 b)October 20, 2006.-№ўџеЭеœ.“—+,љЎ0ФˆЈДМФЬ д мф ьєќ  cфOn-screen Show  p)