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What is the estimated recovery value? Why did lenders continue to pour money- What is needed in financial architecture to ensure responsible lending? What according to his view are distress signals? (if low inflation, interest rates, tourism revenue are not and why did the market not respond to them? When should a country default  before or after capital flight? Z  H$Signaling mechanism  International Monetary Fund Paris Club Agreements on official bilateral debt restructuring The World Bank Credit Rating AgenciesF>v33v33&v33$  ]2IMF Forecasts Overoptimistic33  The dominant bottom-up (surveillance has a strong country orientation) approach yield consistently overoptimistic forecasts for certain regions Does not sufficiently pick policy spillovers in a global context IEO, IMF, September 2006 (  ^3 WEO forecasts33  AU.S. General Accounting office (2003) found that between 1990 and 2001, WEO forecasts for growth and inflation were optimistically biased for 57 countries under IMF supported programs Others such as Ghosh and others (2005) cite evidence that optimistic bias is no greater in program countries than in nonprogram countriesBZB@  a     b7a6_5.The role of the IMF in Paris Club negotiations//G33IMF involvement in mediating debt-rescheduling agreements between debtor countries and official creditors through its role in the Paris Club does not necessarily reflect debt distress. The financing of Fund Programs has become dependent on debt relief This has coincided with the build-up of arrears Bi-lateral flows have increasingly been used to pay International Financial Institutions The amount of debt relief is contingent upon a Fund Program and its estimate of financing gap and in recent times debt sustainability analysis. Problems with both these sets of estimates by the IMF (Continued& ) Ov33Zv33Z vfZvZZ,33 XN     `4.The role of the IMF in Paris Club negotiations//G33 Role of the IMF as gatekeeper not compatible with supplier of concessional resources and - issue of moral hazard at the BWIs. This conflict of interest entails that countries do not receive resources because of good policies and governance, but because they have a high debt burden. The problem of adverse selection. Bad policies receive more resources. Except for HIPC and MDRI, multilaterals as a creditor class are excluded from debt negotiations because of their preferred creditor status Debt relief was often provided through re-scheduling which postponed, but did not reduce debt payments but led to a bunching of payments in the future. This combined with the problem of overoptimistic forecasts and underestimated financing gaps. %fP~v33PqvfPvfPvfPvfPvP?t > .s   \17Gap in financial architecture?E33  The Paris Club is an ad hoc machinery which emerged as a result of international cooperation and not an international agreement on financial architecture Functions like a debt collecting agency Negotiations are influenced by the foreign policy objectives of the creditor countries 8$33%33$33  Serial reschedulingG$33Short consolidation periods to keep debtors on a short leash Mistakes in projections by the IMF Snowballing debt because of bunching of repayments due to lower grace periods; market interest on non-ODA on new reschedulings; and new credits issued after rescheduling j" " =BB #BB BB  DSerial Rescheduling: A Gap in International Financial Architecture ? EEg33D 8 The changing role of Paris Club !!G(33 ! $Rescheduling in the Paris Club was originally perceived to lead to an avoidance of default Debt relief was supposed to be treated as an unusual event It was not to be directly associated with development assistance It was meant to be short term without considerations of long term debt relief%$33% % 9#The changing role of the Paris Club$$G$33 $  2Some issues in debt rescheduling at the Paris Club33G332 GInternational financial structure for official debt has flaws, leading to serial rescheduling and unsustainable debt Originally, the rescheduling at the Paris Club perceived to deal with relief to avoid a default, an exigent and short-term remedy, to be treated on merits alone without consideration of any long-term relief. It was treated as an unusual event. It was not directly associated with development expenditure Presently the Paris Club reschedules debt for countries with liquidity and solvency problems as well as provision of debt relief to finance development expenditure In practice solvency problems are very frequently dealt with like liquidity problems (except for HIPC countries and politically motivated restructurings.) Deferring payments into the future finances development expenditure for non-HIPC countries. uPPPPPuBB 1BB BB Bdt 1    &It is suggested that: G33  Liquidity problems should be dealt with by the IMF -medium- and long-term problems for debt flow and stock reductions at the Paris Club or another suitable body Paris Club mechanisms for financing expenditure under the PRGF needs to be further researched and a comparative cost-benefit analysis with other sources of finance such as donor commitments, drawing down on their quota at the IMF, established relationships with banks and other investors. More transparent machinery is needed for both official and private debt restructuring. Challenge to bring debtors and creditors together, independent information and political buy-ins. P}PPPBBB !BB BP !   r   0` 33` Sf3f` 33g` f` www3PP` ZXdbmo` \ғ3y`Ӣ` 3f3ff` 3f3FKf` hk]wwwfܹ` ff>>\`Y{ff` R>&- {p_/̴>?" dd@,|?" dd@   " @ ` n?" dd@   @@``PR    @ ` ` p>> pL4(  L L 6 " `}  X Click to edit Master title style!! ( L 0x " `  RClick to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level!    S  L 0D "^ `  f*0C  L 0T "^   l* 0C   L 0 "^ `  l* 0C  H L 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.pf Default Design> 0 N(    0,A z%  A `*     0A  ?% A b*   d  c $ ?XK  A  0lA  ) A RClick to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level!    S   6A z  A `*     6A  ? 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