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"More details: Who does it and why?##  And some outliers Excessive?.The motives approach The cost-benefit approach MotivesSelf-insurance Shifting risks from trade balance to capital account from 3 months of imports to Greenspan-Guidotti-Fischer rule Mercantilism Variant 1: Export-led growth strategy Variant 2: Keep savings home Variant 3: Hold reserves for the sake of it Variant 4: Directed creditbb b j Testing motivesAizenman and Lee (2006) Strong effect of variables related to self-insurance Capital account liberalization Crisis dummies Some effect of variables related to mercantlism, but much weaker Undervaluation Export growth b5/A5/A $ 0 Testing motivesAizenman and Lee (2006) Jeanne and Rancire (2006) Model of self-insurance Reserve build-up well explained But some outliers in South-East Asia&3]3]$eTesting motivesAizenman and Lee (2006) Jeanne and Rancire (2006) Official and unofficial statements Conclusion: self-insurance and fear of IMF$W Costs and benefitsCosts Direct costs Rodrik (2006): 1% of GDP for reserves =30% of GDP Opportunity costs Better returns at home (private and public) The case of Chinab 2> 2> |$Costs and benefits0Costs Benefits Export-led growth Self-insurance :!!(Export-led growth;Apparently successful, so a benefit? Only if systematic undervaluation works No evidence that it does No theory Nominal vs. real exchange rate Strong foreign demand inflation Unless domestic demand is weak High saving is the key success factor But then what to do with the savings? Invest at home or abroadbM#&M#&*)Self-insuranceCurrency crises can be very expensive A good reason to buy insurance Do high reserve stocks provide insurance? Not really an insurance Reduce the odds of crisis Unlikely to eliminate the threat False sense of immunity Could discourage reforms Could encourage imprudent policies:ok<ok<+Wrap-upLimited evidence of excessive accumulation Some prominent exceptions Little evidence of mercantilist motive Mostly self insurance Recent build-up is business as usual What has been unusual is financial gloablizationL+b1+b1 /0     ! 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