51吃瓜

This week, climate scientists warned that the climate crisis is widespread, extraordinary, and intensifying. The latest  of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) makes clear that, bar a small window to prevent the most destructive impacts, the world is locked in for more intense heating over the next 30 years. 

Having already warmed by 1.1C above pre-industrial levels, the planet is exceedingly close to the 1.5C temperature limit that is a major alarm signal of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. The report warns that the scale of human-induced changes across the climate system is “unprecedented” and climate extremes are affecting every region across the globe. 

The IPCC’s report also concluded that atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide have not been this high in at least 2 million years, and the past decade is likely the hottest the planet has been in 125,000 years. 

What does this mean for the world’s 91 most vulnerable nations; those that are least developed, landlocked or small islands?  

For Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in particular, the climate crisis has ramped up increasingly extreme weather events, such as the devastating cyclones that have hit the Caribbean and Pacific in recent years. In the Pacific, many SIDS are already being battered by king tides made worse by rising sea-levels while prolonged droughts threaten food security for island communities across the region.  

For low-lying atoll nations in the Pacific like Kiribati and the Marshall Islands, which are only about six feet above sea level, the dire projections for continued sea level rise are an existential threat for these countries. Regardless of what the world does, the vast ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica will continue to melt through to the end of the century. With high confidence, the report concludes that sea level will rise for centuries to millennia and will remain elevated for thousands of years. 

In Africa, where 32 of the world’s 48 Least Developed Countries are located, some of which are also landlocked, the report warns that at 1.5C of heating, heavy rainfall and associated flooding are projected to intensify while extreme drought is already being felt in southwest Africa.  

“We don’t have a moment to lose,” said Courtenay Rattray, High Representative for the Least Developed Countries, Landlocked Developing Countries and Small Island Developing States.  

He added: “The world’s most vulnerable nations are already on the frontline of the climate crisis. Not only do they contribute the least to carbon emissions, but they continue to suffer disproportionately. Let’s heed the science and make sure that at the upcoming climate talks in Glasgow (COP26) we take the decisive action that’s needed to change course for the sake of the most vulnerable, and the world.” 

The news comes at a time when the most vulnerable nations are already strained by the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic. Precious financial resources these nations would otherwise have used to adapt to the climate crisis have been diverted to tackling the pandemic. 

At the Copenhagen climate summit (COP25) in 2009, wealthy nations agreed to provide $100 billion annually by 2020 to help developing countries adapt to climate change and transition to clean, renewable energy like wind and solar. That promise has yet to be met. At the same time the most vulnerable nations continue to call for financing to tackle the climate-fueled disasters happening now. 

Sonam Phuntsho Wangdi, Chair of the Least Developed Countries (LDC) Group on climate change , “Climate change is hurting our countries and communities worst. It’s already late but by COP26, developed countries must deliver their decade-old commitment to provide $100bn annually and keep on increasing it as per the needs of countries facing climate impacts.” 

However, there is still time to limit climate change,  experts say. The report makes clear that while the world is locked into 30 years of worsening climate impacts, there is a window of opportunity to stabilize the climate system thereafter if governments make immediate, drastic cuts in emissions to stabilize the climate at about 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming compared to pre-industrial levels.