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The estimates on, ‘Implications of the African Continental Free Trade Area for demand for transport, infrastructure and services’, released by ECA at the fifth African Business Forum?on February 7, indicate that with AfCFTA in absolute terms, over 25 per cent of intra-African trade gains in services?would go to transport alone; and nearly 40 per cent of the increase in?Africa’s services production would be in transport.

The research conducted by experts in the?Energy,?Infrastructure?and?Services Section of ECA unpacks AfCFTA investment opportunity in the transport sector.

Vera Songwe, UN Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary of the ECA said the AfCFTA?is “expected to significantly increase traffic flows on all?transport modes: Road, Rail, Maritime, and Air,” but that such gains will only be optimized if?the AfCFTA?is accompanied by?implementation of regional infrastructure projects.

Robert?Lisinge, Chief?of the?Energy,?Infrastructure?and?Services Section at ECA, said “roads currently?carry the lion’s share?of freight in Africa.” He pointed out that the “AfCFTA?provides?an opportunity to?build Africa’s?railway network. It would?increase intra-Africa?freight demand by?28 per cent; demand for?maritime freight will?increase the most."

According to the research findings, AfCFTA?requires?1,844,000 trucks for?bulk cargo and?248,000 trucks for?container cargo?by 2030. This?increases to?1,945,000 and?268,000 trucks?respectively if?planned?infrastructure?projects are also?implemented.

The largest?demand for trucks?to support?AfCFTA?is within West?Africa (39 per cent);?demand from?West to Southern?Africa is 19.8 per cent?and from Southern?Africa to Western?Africa by 9.9 per cent.

The key questions considered for research were how will implementation of?AfCFTA?affect demand for?transport infrastructure and services? What would be the demand for different modes of transport,?and what are the implications for investment in infrastructure?development? ?

What would be the infrastructure and equipment needs for?different transport modes??

Mr. Lisinge noted that AfCFTA?and Africa’s transport infrastructure programmes?are intrinsically linked and should be implemented?simultaneously. He said the Trans-African Highways (TAH) &?Programme?for?Infrastructure?Development?(PIDA) and the Single African Air Transport?Market (SAATM) should be prioritised at the same?level with?AfCFTA.?

Road Transport

“Africa’s road?network is inadequate but implementing?planned projects?will significantly?increase its size. Africa needs to?upgrade sections?of its roads to?cope with?increased freight?generated by?AfCFTA,” said Mr Lisinge.

“Freight traffic growth envisaged to be higher in some sections?of Africa’s Road network than continent-wide average growth. Implementing?AfCFTA?will double road freight from 201 to 403?million?tonnes.”

Implementing?TAH and PIDA?projects, he said, increases?capacity of?transport networks?to accommodate?freight growth. Reaping the huge benefits of?AfCFTA?to the transport?sector requires implementation of regional infrastructure?and services programmes.

Rail Transport

On the rail transport, ECA estimates show that Africa’s rail?network is?inadequate, but implementing PIDA?and other planned?projects will?significantly?increase its size.? Implementing planned projects will increase the network?by almost 26,500km.

?AfCFTA?requires?97,614 wagons for?bulk cargo and?20,668 wagons for?container cargo by?2030. This increases?to 132,857 and 36,482?wagons respectively?if planned?infrastructure projects?are also?implemented.

Maritime

Implementing?AfCFTA?would?double maritime?freight from 58 to?131.5 million?tonnes. Africa’s maritime network includes 142 links connecting?65 ports and accounts for 22.1% of intra-African freight?transport. ?Share will increase by 0.6% to 22.7% if both?AfCFTA?and planned infrastructure projects are implemented.

AfCFTA requires?126 vessels for?bulk cargo and?15 vessels for?container cargo?by 2030. This?reduces to 121?and 14 vessels?respectively if?planned?infrastructure?projects are also?implemented.

Air transport

The continent’s air transport network includes a total of?14,762 air routes (connecting each airport with the other?121 airports).

Implementing?AfCFTA?would?double the number?of?tonnes?transported by air?from 2.3 to 4.5?million.

In 2019, air accounted for only 0.9% of intra-Africa freight?transport? Implementation of?AfCFTA?would double airfreight from 2.3?to 4.5 million?tonnes. ? Air traffic is therefore expected to double in 2030 compared?to 2019.

About AfCFTA

African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Agreement?entered into force in 2019. Implementation commenced in 2021.

Negotiations are still ongoing on investment, intellectual?property rights, competition policy and e-commerce. AfCFTA’s objective is to create single continental market for goods &?services, with free movement of people and investments,?enhancing competitiveness and supporting economic?transformation.