51吃瓜

In the summer of 2005, South Africa鈥揵ased entrepreneur Marilyn Cooper decided to give her neighbors in a suburb of the capital, Pretoria, a barbecue treat. Alluding to the inscription on her drinking glasses, 鈥淪oweto Beer Festival,鈥� she asked her guests, 鈥淲hy can鈥檛 we have a Soweto wine festival?鈥� The economic situation was just right for such a celebration, she felt, as many residents of Soweto, a predominantly black township in Johannesburg, were already showing flashes of middle class life: buying new cars, modern electronics, mobile phones, designer dresses and houses. And they appeared to love a good wine.

Within a year Ms. Cooper had found a partner, Mnikelo Mangciphu, with whom she organized the first-ever Soweto Wine Festival. Which has now become a popular annual event. She also owns a winery and business is booming, but she believes that better days are still ahead as she targets a rising black middle-class market.听

Ms. Cooper is not the only one to be excited about the steady growth of the South African black middle class. Speaking at the Forbes Africa Forum in听Congo-Brazzaville in July, South African president Jacob Zuma enthusiastically lauded current progress. 鈥淭he [black middle class] growth demonstrates that we are making progress in improving the quality of life and extending opportunities to those who were oppressed only 19 years ago before the dawn of freedom.鈥�

Growing demographic

But who exactly is in the middle class in South Africa? Although the African Development Bank describes as middle class in a developing economy anyone earning more than $2 per day, a study by John Simpson, director of the University of Cape Town鈥檚 Unilever Institute of Strategic Marketing, defines middle class South Africans as those who earn between $1,550 and $4,800 per month or who meet certain criteria, for instance, having a white-collar job and owning a car.听

In a recent study, Four Million and Rising, Mr. Simpson agrees with President Zuma鈥檚 upbeat assessment and provides backup data. For example, currently 40% of black professionals work in the civil service, compared to 13% of whites. This has led to the rise of income levels in black families, which in turn has led to increased consumption. The study found that between 2004 and 2012, the number of black middle-class families who owned a DVD player increased from 30% to 63%; the number with computers at home increased from 19% to 45%; and of those owning microwaves from 60% to 92%.

Nicholas Nkosi, a manager with South Africa鈥檚 Standard Bank, adds his voice to the excitement about a new and financially empowered black middle class. More blacks are buying homes than before, he told Africa Renewal in an interview. In addition, his bank鈥檚 2013 report shows that car sales to blacks increased by 19% between 2011 and 2012, compared to an increase of 7% for white customers during the same period.

Lyn Foxcroft, a business consultant who studied wine consumption among emerging consumers in South Africa, writes, 鈥淥f the 8.3 million adults classified as middle class in 2012, 51% are black, 34% white.... This is a dramatic shift from the 2004 proportions: white 52%, black 32%鈥� South Africa鈥檚 middle class generally spends a whopping $40 billion annually. Its 4.2 million black middle-class citizens represent a chunk of this amount, with nearly half having a post-secondary degree and more than 50% of families sending their children to private schools. Finance minister Pravin Gordhan adds that generally since 1994, per capita national income is up 40%, while up to four in five people are now connected to the electric power grid.

Economy鈥檚 engine

Available data, says Mr. Simpson, indicates an expansion of the black middle class, and he sees this demographic as the engine of the South African economy because of its strong purchasing power and contribution to the national coffers through taxes.听

Several factors have helped swell the ranks of South Africa鈥檚 black middle class, including credit availability, education, the government鈥檚 Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) programme and general economic growth, which has led to more job creation, says Mr. Simpson. The BEE programme aims to ensure the participation of previously disadvantaged nonwhites in the corporate sector. The policy includes tax benefits and employment preference. 鈥淪heer economic growth in a consumption-driven economy and easy access to credit helped to make the number of black middle class families rise,鈥� says Mr. Simpson.

Entrepreneurs such as Ms. Cooper continue to find themselves faced with many opportunities. She affirms that 鈥渇or the next 20 to 30 years, this black middle-class market is going to expand further.鈥� 听

Aside from contributing to economic growth, the rise of the black middle class 鈥渟hows a movement towards the normalization of the society,鈥� argues Mr. Simpson. Prior to 1994, when apartheid officially ended, blacks were oppressed, had few job opportunities and had restricted access to education. The economic and political landscape has since changed, with the growing black middle class changing historic inequalities.

While President Zuma and others sound positive about the future of South Africa鈥檚 black middle class, Mr. Simpson believes more remains to be done. 鈥淧overty at the bottom end hasn鈥檛 reduced very much,鈥� he says. The rise of some has resulted in a widening of the gap between rich and poor. South Africa has become 鈥渙ne of the most unequal societies in the world.鈥� 听

Simpson鈥檚 study shows that about 70% of blacks in the middle class feel increasing pressure to support less fortunate dependents. This pressure is captured in the award-winning 2011 documentary Forerunners, which portrays the struggles of four black South Africans striving to find balance in their new lives and cope with the tensions that result from attempting to fulfill enormous family responsibilities.

Fast food invasion

Increased spending power by the black middle class has caused an influx of fast-food outlets and, from that, new health challenges, such as obesity. By June 2013, fast-food giant McDonald鈥檚 operated 185 restaurants in South Africa, and it is set to increase the number to 200 by the end of the year. Burger King, another fast-food company, opened its first restaurant in South Africa this year and expects to open more in the future. Its chief executive officer, Jaye Sinclair, tells Bloomberg.com, the U.S. business wire鈥檚 online publication, 鈥淭he [spending of the] middle class will be the savior for South Africa down the line, not exports.鈥澨�

But South Africa鈥檚 Medical Research Council is worried that 鈥渙besity is not only a problem of the developed nations but is becoming an increasing problem in countries undergoing societal transitions.鈥� Studies show that 39% of women and 10% of men in South Africa are obese already鈥攎eaning that their weights are greater than what is generally considered normal for their heights. But that鈥檚 not a problem for the growing fitness sector. Gyms are opening throughout middle-class neighborhoods such as Protea Glen, Orlando West and Orlando East in Soweto.

Urbanization

With black middle-class families moving from townships to suburbs, housing construction, especially in new settlements, is expanding. South Africa鈥檚 Financial Mail newspaper reports that there was a shortage of 600,000 housing units for the working class in 2013. The paper attributes the current backlog of about 100,000 housing units a year鈥攁nd growing鈥攖o rapid urbanization, a reduction in the average family size and a fast-growing middle class. Affordable neighborhoods for middle-income earners in Johannesburg, and in Pretoria and Durban in the KwaZulu-Natal province, are becoming overpopulated. The high demand for housing also puts a strain on services such as electricity. During the winter, for example, the exploding demand for energy often causes power outages.

Still, many development experts agree that the growth of the black middle class is good for South Africa. It strengthens Africa鈥檚 biggest economy and moves the country steadily towards a truly prosperous society. 鈥淏etter days are indeed ahead for South Africa,鈥� Ms. Cooper says confidently.鈥�