5 September 2024 - The global demographic landscape has evolved greatly, driven in large part by rapid fertility declines in some of the world¡¯s most populous countries. Understanding how population trends are unfolding is critical for achieving a more inclusive, prosperous and sustainable future. Here are four things you should know about the latest global population trends:
1. One in four people today live in a country whose population has already peaked in size
In 63 countries and areas, the size of the population peaked before 2024. For countries such as Italy, Germany and the Russian Federation, the population size would have peaked even sooner in the absence of immigration. For most countries and areas with populations that have already peaked, low levels of fertility are the major driver of the ongoing population decline.
2. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, global life expectancy is rising once again
Global life expectancy at birth reached 73.3 years in 2024, having fallen from 72.6 in 2019 to 70.9 at the peak of the pandemic in 2020 and 2021. In 2023, the number of deaths among children under age 5 fell below 5 million for the first time in recent history. Despite such success, much remains to be done: 95 per cent of these child deaths occurred in countries and areas where the population is expected to still be growing at mid-century, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, India, Nigeria and Pakistan.
3. Women today bear one child fewer, on average, than they did around 1990
In more than half of the 235 countries and areas that comprise the global population, women are giving birth to fewer than 2.1 children over a lifetime, below the level required for a population to maintain a constant size in the absence of migration. In 2024, it is projected that 4.7 million babies will be born to mothers under age 18 worldwide. Investing in the education of young people, especially girls, and raising the average ages of marriage and of first childbearing are critical for improving women¡¯s health and increasing their labour force participation in locations where early childbearing is still common.
4. Population ageing is an inevitable outcome of the demographic transition
The decline of fertility and the increase in life expectancy have contributed to a shift in the population age distribution towards older ages. In countries and areas with relatively low levels of fertility and high levels of life expectancy, such as Canada, France and Sweden, more than 20 per cent of the population is already aged 65 years or older in 2024. Understanding and measuring population ageing is crucial for planning and taking action to effectively address its consequences.
For more information: World Population Prospects 2024