I have the honour to address the Commission on Population andDevelopment for the first time as Under-Secretary-General for Economicand Social Affairs.
The world has made major advances in reducing both mortalityand fertility – and, in the process, improving the lives andprospects for millions of families worldwide. The transformationalchanges in population trends that began last century, and are stillplaying out, owe much to the intellectual leadership that thisCommission has exercised, and to its success in garnering the politicalcommitment necessary to influence population trends.
This week, the Commission will consider an important elementof population dynamics: the spatial distribution of population and itsinterrelations to development. The Commission will focus particularlyon the increasing urbanization.
By the end of this year, for the first time in history, halfof all people will live in urban areas. More strikingly, populationgrowth, in future, will be absorbed, almost entirely, by urban areas indeveloping countries.
In slightly more than a decade, the world’s ruralpopulation will peak at about 3.5 billion people and, then, start aslow decline. From now to 2050, the urban population of developedcountries will change little, remaining at about one billion. Yet, theworld’s urban population will continue rising, from 3.3billion today, to well over 6 billion in 2050.
Three factors drive the growth of the urban population. Thefirst is that the number of births exceeds the number of deaths.Demographers call this “natural increase”. Thesecond is the migration of people from rural to urban areas.
The third is a factor often overlooked: the transformation ofrural settlements into urban towns. And these “newlyborn” cities are often “medium sized”.For instance, between the early 1980s and the 1990s, at least 400localities that were newly classified as cities – each with 100,000 inhabitants or more – were added to the urbanpopulation of Asia alone, thus producing almost instantaneous spurts ofgrowth in the urban population.
Understanding the components of urban population growth isimportant because the spatial distribution of their populations is aconcern for the vast majority of Governments.
The most common policy response has been to try to reducerural to urban migration. Yet, in most developing countries, suchmigration is not the major contributor to urban growth. And it is verydifficult to succeed in keeping people in the countryside when the pullof the city is strong, offering greater opportunities and a higherquality of life. This suggests that developing countries wishing toslow down urban population growth should focus, instead, on ways ofreducing natural increase in their urban areas.
Mounting evidence indicates that there are still majordisparities in access to services, not only between rural and urbandwellers, but also between poor urban dwellers and the rest.Furthermore, the advantage of urban areas in terms of access toreproductive health and family planning is smaller than one wouldexpect. Much can be done to improve access by both poor urban dwellersand rural residents to those services.
In this context, let me also underscore the importance ofprogrammes that focus specifically on improving the health status ofpoor children, whether in rural or urban areas. Such programmes wouldnot only save lives and improve children’s well-being; theywould also allow parents to have fewer children, while still reachingthe family size they desire.
As more effort and resources are concentrated in supportingcountries’ efforts to reach the Millennium Development Goalsby 2015, it is important to understand how population distributionconditions the lives of people – and interacts with otherdemographic processes – in order to plan and targetinterventions effectively.
Large cities, despite their problems, produce better healthoutcomes than smaller cities. And cities, in turn, tend to providebetter livelihoods to the average inhabitant than rural areas. Enablinglocal authorities to tailor interventions to their particular settingsis an important consideration in responding to the challenges posed byuneven population distribution and access to services and resources.
This Commission plays a crucial role in ensuring that the rootcauses of population trends are understood and reflected properly ininternational discourse. The rigour with which the Commission lays outthe facts, and assesses their consequences for policy action, is one ofits fundamental assets. I hope that the valuable work of the Commissionmay contribute to the newly mandated activities of the Economic andSocial Council and, in particular, to the Annual Ministerial Review ofprogress towards the MDGs and other internationally agreed developmentgoals. The focus of the Review, this year, is on sustainabledevelopment commitments; next year, it will be global health.
To conclude, let me recall the following guidance provided bythe Programme of Action of the International Conference on Populationand Development: “Effective population distribution policiesare those that, while respecting the right of individuals to live andwork in the community of their choice, take into account the effects ofdevelopment strategies on population distribution”.
Mr. Chairman, distinguished Delegates, I hope this principlewill prove useful in guiding your deliberations, and I wish you a mostproductive and successful session.