51吃瓜

Billboard in Accra, Ghana, marking the death of President John Atta Mills in July 2012: The vacancy was filled without any political problems, as power passed smoothly, according to constitutional norms, to the then vice-president, John Mahama.鈥�

Photo: AP/Christian Thompson

In December 2008, a Guinean newspaper published a photo of a frail and ailing President Lansana Cont茅, who appeared to be struggling to stand up. The photo stoked rumours of the president鈥檚 ill health. Its publication also angered the country鈥檚 political elite, who hastily ordered the editor鈥檚 arrest. By the next day, on the instructions of security operatives, the publication鈥檚 front page carried an even bigger photo of Mr. Cont茅 鈥� this time smiling broadly and looking spirited. But he died just a week later, justifying the newspaper鈥檚 initial resolve to let Guineans know that his health was failing.听

The head of the National Assembly, Aboubacar Sompar茅, later explained that leaders hid the president鈥檚 鈥減hysical suffering in order to give happiness to Guinea.鈥� Mr. Sompar茅鈥檚 clumsy explanation implied a need to avoid succession squabbles and potential violence. Yet six hours听after the president鈥檚 death was听officially announced, the army staged a coup, suspended the constitution and threw the West African nation into political turmoil.

Succession squabbles

While Guinea鈥檚 military, after a period of chaos and yet another coup, eventually organized democratic elections, the muddled aftermath of Cont茅鈥檚 death draws attention to the broader issue of how African nations manage successions when their leaders die in service. Ten of the 13 world leaders who have died in office since 2009 were African. In 2012 alone, presidents Malam Bacai Sanha of Guinea-Bissau, John Atta Mills of Ghana and Bingu wa Mutharika of Malawi, as well as Prime Minister Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia, have all died.听

Some countries have handled succession better than others. As chaotic as they were, the developments in Guinea were not as dire as the more recent situation in Guinea-Bissau. Since President Sanha died in January from an illness, the country has been embroiled in an ongoing transition crisis, with the military mostly controlling the affairs of state.听

Malawi, on the other hand, had a relatively successful transition after 78-year-old President Mutharika鈥檚 fatal heart attack in April. But the process could have gone off the rails when some cabinet members tried to have the late president鈥檚 younger brother, Foreign Minister Peter Mutharika, sworn in, instead of Joyce Banda, the vice-president and constitutionally designated successor. This effort followed the late president鈥檚 expulsion of Ms. Banda from the ruling party to pave the way for his brother. When he died the political class was divided between those who cited the听late leader鈥檚 intentions and those who wanted to follow the constitution.听Many Malawians agitated against any听deviation from the constitution, supported by donors, including a strong message from the US State Department: 鈥淲e trust that the vice-president, who is next in line, will be sworn in shortly.鈥� And she soon was.

It is important to avoid such succession problems, argues Tesfaye Habisso, an Ethiopian writer and former diplomat. 鈥淪tability, predictability and continuity in leadership are important ingredients of good governance and are assured by a well-planned and -managed succession strategy.鈥澨�

The rule of law

Succession strategies need to be strictly constitutional, argues a 2011 report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a US think tank. The report specifically draws attention to oil-rich Angola, governed since 1979 by Jos茅 Eduardo dos Santos, who is now 70. While the country is now at peace, and its economy is growing, the CSIS report expresses concern that the established rules of succession could be violated because of infighting within the ruling People鈥檚 Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA). Some MPLA factions oppose the current vice-president.

Most African countries鈥� constitutions specify that when a leader dies in office, his or her deputy or the head of the national assembly will step in until an election can be held. Some leaders, however, expect the designated 鈥渉eir apparent鈥� to display fawning personal loyalty. If he or she does not, political conflict can arise. In Nigeria, for example, Vice-President Atiku Abubakar had a frosty relationship with then President Olusegun Obasanjo, who wasted no time arranging Mr. Abubakar鈥檚 expulsion from the ruling party.

Some African leaders have groomed relatives as successors. When President Omar Bongo of Gabon died in 2009, the ruling party named his son, Ali Bongo Ondima, who was foreign and defence minister, as the new president. Presidents Faure Gnassingb茅 of Togo and Joseph Kabila of the Democratic Republic of the Congo succeeded their deceased fathers.听

Yet picking a relative can spark a revolt, maintains the CSIS report, citing the case of Egypt, where President Hosni Mubarak鈥檚 intention to install his son as his successor added to the opposition that erupted in the revolution of early 2011. In Burkina Faso, indications that President Blaise Compaor茅 may be grooming his younger brother, Fran莽ois, as a successor have stirred considerable controversy.

Constitutions should be followed strictly when a president or prime minister dies, says Adewalo Banjo, an expert in African development. Without the rule of law, he argues, there can be 鈥渃onstitutional somersaults which bear all the hallmarks of what ridicules Africa before the world.鈥�

Joyce Banda, previously vice-president, became Malawi's new president in April 2012 after the death of her predecessor, Bingu wa Mutharika: Although she had been constitutionally in line to fill the vacancy, some supporters of the late president initially tried to block her, but were stymied by popular agitation and donor pressure.鈥�

Photo: AP / Choko Chikondi

Signs of progress

The rule of law certainly prevailed in Ghana after President John Atta Mills died in July. Unlike in Malawi, there was never any doubt as to who should take charge. Vice-President John Dramani Mahama took over the mantle of leadership in line with constitutional requirements and promptly rallied a distressed nation. Ghana鈥檚 seamless transition reflected the strength of its democratic system, in which ruling parties have twice handed over power to the opposition, after electoral defeats in 2000 and 2008.

Nevertheless, while a strong democratic tradition can facilitate smooth successions, considerations of political power may get in the way. When Nigeria鈥檚 Umaru Musa Yar鈥橝dua died in May 2010, some Nigerians demanded that another northerner be sworn in instead of Vice-President Goodluck Jonathan, a southerner.听Mr. Jonathan eventually prevailed.

Following the death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi in August, the succession process in Ethiopia was also successful despite initial hitches. There had been speculation that Mr. Meles鈥� deputy, Hailemariam Desalegn, although a member of the ruling circle, could not be trusted with power because he did not belong to the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), a former militant听group once led by the late president and still a powerful faction within听the ruling party.听

Ironically, the case for Mr. Hailemariam was made on the basis of ethnic considerations: to defuse tensions associated with the TPLF鈥檚 domination over the years and to placate the Wolaytas, an ethnic minority that had never had a member at the summit of power. Ultimately, Ethiopia鈥檚 ruling group rallied around Mr. Hailemariam, who was quick to promise听a continuation of Mr. Meles鈥檚听policies 鈥渨ithout any change.鈥�

Ethiopia, Ghana and Malawi 鈥� the three latest cases of smooth succession following the death of a leader 鈥� provide evidence that Africa is gradually getting its transitions right. Succession can be a frequent problem even in developed and stable democracies, because it is all about political power, says Minion Morrison of Mississippi State University in the US. It is even more problematic if a leader dies in office. After the mess that surrounded the illness and death of Nigeria鈥檚 Mr. Yar鈥橝dua, writer and Nobel laureate Wole Soyinka sent a simple message to African leaders: political succession should not be a matter of 鈥渄o or die鈥� politics.鈥�